Don't use surveys as a drunk would use a lamppost

Aquino says 8 polls show him winning big

Philippine Daily Inquirer

A recent Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, which shows that one of every two voters in Luzon would support him, may have limited coverage but it is indicative of the nation’s pulse, Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III said Monday.

Aquino, standard-bearer of the Liberal Party (LP), said seven to eight separate surveys showed practically the same results.

“This proves that people want change,” said the only son of the late President Corazon Aquino and opposition Sen. Benigno Aquino Jr., who was assassinated upon his return to the country in 1983.

In the SWS survey conducted on Sept. 5 and 6, Aquino obtained 50 percent, dislodging the previous front-runner, Sen. Manny Villar, who was a far second with 14 percent.

The survey covered 1,200 respondents in Metro Manila, Pangasinan, Central Luzon and Calabarzon—an area that is home to 40 percent of the country’s registered voters—and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Similar margins

Aquino said results of the various surveys showed that he had similar margins over the other presidential hopefuls.

“We have been getting surveys … for specific places and it’s not just Luzon. I can’t say that they show the same numbers, but they’re (almost) the same,” he said.

Aquino, however, did not name the groups that conducted the opinion polls.

In the SWS survey, former President Joseph Estrada got 13 percent, Sen. Francis Escudero 12 percent, and Vice President Noli de Castro 7 percent. [...]

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Read also:

* 50% prefer Noynoy in vote-rich Luzon areas: SWS survey
* The Front Runner by Ricky Carandang

Don't put your trust on opinion surveys. They can be very deceiving and could tend to lead people into complacency.

According to one thinker, survey statistics are like bikinis: they show a lot but not everything. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. And according to G.K. Chesterton, there are people who use statistics like a drunken person uses a lamppost -- for support, not for illumination.

Build your house on rocks and not on sands.